The Index · Live

Aaron NesmithIndiana Pacers · #23

Forward · 6'5", 215 lb · Charleston, South Carolina · Age 27 · 6th season

Aaron Nesmith is a 6-foot-5 3-and-D wing for the Indiana Pacers — an elite catch-and-shoot threat and tenacious perimeter defender. Drafted 14th in 2020 by Boston out of Vanderbilt and traded to Indiana, he nearly posted a 50-40-90 shooting season in 2024-25 and set an NBA record with six fourth-quarter three-pointers in a 2025 Conference Finals playoff game. He has reached two NBA Finals.

MVP race · #130Forward rank · #61Balladex Impact · 60
⚖ Quick compare
A
Aaron Nesmith
◆ Rated
Indiana Pacers · #23 · Forward
Aaron Nesmith
Season avg13.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.9 ast · .414 fg
Career avg9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast · .448 fg
Live win probabilitySeason
No scheduled game — showing season pace. Illustrative.
Tonight's projectionmodel
13.8pts
4.2reb
1.9ast
LADDER#130 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 60 — Solid starter tierINDEXAaron Nesmith · Indiana PacersLADDER#130 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 60 — Solid starter tierINDEXAaron Nesmith · Indiana Pacers
Scouting report

Aaron Nesmith — the report card

Read his whole game at a glance, then dive into any skill. Grades from the DNA model + real production.

C
3-and-D Wing · Impact 60
Aaron Nesmith is a 6-foot-5 3-and-D wing for the Indiana Pacers — an elite catch-and-shoot threat and tenacious perimeter defender. Drafted 14th in 20
C-
Offense
C
Defense
C-
Feel / IQ
F
Playmaking
Below average creator
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C
Scoring
Average scorer
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C
Rebounding
Average on the glass
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C+
3PT / spacing
Average spacing
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B
Perimeter D
Strong on the perimeter
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D
Paint / rim D
Below average at the rim
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C
Clutch
Average late
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C+
Athleticism
Strong tools
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C-
Basketball IQ
Reads the game
tap for the data ↓
C
Durability
Availability
tap for the data ↓
Act II

Where Aaron Nesmith stands

Live ladders from the Balladex models, and what he's chasing. Rankings recompute nightly from real production, accolades, and search demand.

The laddersmodel · recomputes nightly
1
Nikola Jokić DEN
29%
2
Luka Doncic LAL
20%
3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA
4%
5
Victor Wembanyama SAS
3%
6
Anthony Edwards MIN
2%
7
Tyrese Maxey PHI
2%
8
Jamal Murray DEN
2%
Balladex Consensus: #169 of 384 — a blend of the Impact index, current production, career résumé and live search demand. Recomputes as the data does.
Futures & chases
<1%MVP odds
60Impact index
127Star score
Career scoring average9.6 ppg
Seasons in the index6
Accolades on file2
2× NBA Finalist · 14th Draft pick (2020)
Stat explorer

Aaron Nesmith — every number, three levels deep

Headline → metric → the raw history behind it. Real career data; tracking-only metrics labeled.

C
Scoring
13.8 PPG
drill in ↓
F
Playmaking
1.9 APG
drill in ↓
C
Rebounding
4.2 RPG
drill in ↓
C+
Shooting
.379 3P%
drill in ↓
The engine

How the model sees Aaron Nesmith

Projection = per-minute rate × projected minutes. Rates are recency- and health-weighted, aged along a per-stat curve, and adjusted for live usage/role. No black box — every number shows its work.

Projected 2026-27  71% confidence
14.8
pts
12.6–17.0
4.3
reb
3.4–5.2
2.1
ast
1.4–2.8
30.6
min
proj
50
gp
health
.461
fg%
~base
.401
3p%
~base
Bands widen as confidence drops. Derived live from the real 6-season history below.
What moves the points line vs last season
Last season 13.8 → projected 14.8 PPG
Minutes / role
+0.4
Development (his trend)
+0.3
Age curve
+0.0
Live context
+0.3
Net vs last season+1.0 PPG
Everything it reads
📊
6 seasons of per-minute rates
every box line, minutes-normalized
real
Recency × games-played weight
recent, healthy seasons anchor the baseline
auto
📈
Weighted least-squares trend
his own trajectory, read season over season
+dev
🕰
Per-stat aging curves
age 27 — applied per stat
curve
🔌
Live role context
usage & role shifts fold in when the feed is present
+ctx
🏥
Durability signal
GP last 3: 72 / 45 / 45 → games & confidence
health
The real history it trains onsource: Basketball-Reference · verified

Aaron Nesmith career stats, season by season

Career stats by season
SeasonGPMINPTSREBASTFG%3P%
2020-214614.54.72.80.5.438.370
2021-225211.03.81.70.4.396.270
2022-237324.910.13.81.3.427.366
2023-247227.712.23.81.5.496.419
2024-254524.912.04.01.2.507.431
2025-264529.713.84.21.9.414.379
Career33322.59.63.41.2
Source: Basketball-Reference. Backtested against completed player-seasons in the index. The same engine powers Tonight's projection, EraLab, and the role simulator — one model, asked different questions. Illustrative.
Act III

The Lab

Every number, live and interactive. Real career data; models labeled.

Gold = MVP / Championship season · hover any bar. Real per-game data; per-36 & totals derived.
EraLab · the stat time machinenovel
Re-express a season in today's pace-and-space.
raw PPG
in 2026 pace
why
Scoring map · clickable zonesShotChart
Team-tinted. Modeled where tracking data is absent.
Role simulatorpowered by GM engine
Change the roster around him — his projection updates live.
Projected line shifts to — usage , assists rise as primary initiator. Title odds . Illustrative.
Context

Are the Indiana Pacers built to win?

Team projection rolled up from the roster + last-season baselines — and what it means for his role.

22–60proj record
#13conf seed
-7.5net rtg
110.2off rtg
117.8def rtg
1%playoff odds
Roster delta · what changed
Drop coverage — Sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.. Core trending improving. Defensive anchors: Ivica Zubac, Andrew Nembhard.
How his role moves
Projected 22–60, 13th in the East. Real team projection from the roster + last-season baselines. His usage, minutes and creation load move with roster health.
Balladex Impact
60 of 99
Solid starter tier.
Rarity
◆ Rated
Collectible tier.
Résumé
2 accolades
2× NBA Finalist · 14th Draft pick (2020)
Act IV

The Ballad of Aaron Nesmith

Birth to now — the making of a legend, narrated and scored.

Oct 16, 1999

The beginning

A tough 3-and-D wing — elite catch-and-shoot shooting and physical perimeter defense for the Pacers.

Indiana Pacers

Turning pro

Drafted 14th overall, 2020 as a Forward.

true

A tough 3-and-D wing — elite catch-and-shoot shooting and physical defense for the Pacers.

Chapter

A top shooter at Vanderbilt, Nesmith was drafted 14th in 2020 by Boston and traded to Indiana in 2022.

Chapter

He became an elite 3-and-D starter, nearly shooting 50-40-90 in 2024-25.

Off the court

Measurables ESPN
Active
Height
6' 5"
Weight
215 lbs
College
Vanderbilt
Experience
6th Season
NBA debut
2020
Draft
14th overall, 2020
Born
Charleston, South Carolina
Age
27
Jersey
#23
Beyond the game

Nesmith's game is built on shooting and toughness — a reputation forged at Vanderbilt and hardened into one of the league's most reliable 3-and-D wings, rewarded with multiple contract extensions that reflect his winning value. He has reached the NBA Finals with two different franchises, a testament to his fit on contenders.

His on-court identity is catch-and-shoot marksmanship and physical, versatile perimeter defense — a wing who spaces the floor at an elite clip (a near 50-40-90 season) while guarding tough assignments. His record-setting six-three fourth quarter in the 2025 Conference Finals showed the shot-making that makes him a difference-maker in the biggest moments.

The person

A tough 3-and-D wing — elite catch-and-shoot shooting and physical perimeter defense.

Elite shooterNearly a 50-40-90 season; a catch-and-shoot marksman.
Physical defenderA tenacious, versatile perimeter stopper.
Big-moment shooterSet an NBA record with six fourth-quarter playoff threes.
Verified profiles & sources
FAQ

Aaron Nesmith — frequently asked

The questions people ask most about Aaron Nesmith, answered.

What is Aaron Nesmith's role?
An elite 3-and-D wing — a catch-and-shoot marksman (nearly a 50-40-90 season) and physical perimeter defender who spaces the floor and guards tough assignments.
What NBA record does Aaron Nesmith hold?
He became the first player in NBA history to make six three-pointers in the fourth quarter of a playoff game, in Game 1 of the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals.
How many NBA Finals has Aaron Nesmith reached?
Two — with Boston in 2022 and Indiana in 2025.
Aaron Nesmith career stats & accolades are real, and team projections and recent-game home/away splits are computed from real production. DNA ratings, grades, tonight's projection, ladders, live win probability and simulator outputs are Balladex model output. Not affiliated with the NBA.
✦ Companion
Ask about Aaron Nesmith

Availability & durability

games played vs season length
Career availability
69%
6 seasons
Last 3 seasons
66%
84 games missed
Games missed
149
career, schedule-adj.
Durability
Some risk
steady
Availability by season
46
20-21
52
21-22
73
22-23
72
23-24
45
24-25
45
25-26

Some risk. Availability trend is steady66% of games over the last three seasons, low of 55% in 2024-25.

Availability = games played ÷ season length (schedule-adjusted for lockout and COVID seasons). A durability signal from real game data, not a medical assessment.

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