The Index · Live

Dru SmithMiami Heat · #12

Guard · 6'2", 203 lb · Evansville, Indiana · Age 29 · 4th season

Dru Smith is an undrafted, defensive-minded guard for the Miami Heat from Evansville, Indiana, who played college ball at Evansville and Missouri. After multiple season-ending injuries limited him to 38 games across his first three seasons, he stayed healthy in 2025-26 — appearing in 70 games as an elite perimeter defender who led the NBA in deflections per 36 minutes. He re-signed with Miami in 2025.

MVP race · #265Guard rank · #109Balladex Impact · 55
⚖ Quick compare
D
Dru Smith
◆ Rated
Miami Heat · #12 · Guard
Dru Smith
Season avg5.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.6 ast · .415 fg
Career avg5.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.3 ast · .429 fg
Live win probabilityHeat 71%
Balladex model · projected 122–118 · 99.7 pace
Tonight's projectionmodel
7.1pts
2.9reb
3.5ast
71%win
Tonight's matchup · who he'll mainly guardhead-to-head
Dru Smith
Miami Heat · Guard
C-
vs
72
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Milwaukee Bucks · Solid defender
Category breakout
Head-to-head history
Home/away splits from recent games; live grades from the DNA model.
LADDER#265 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 55 — Rotation piece tierINDEXDru Smith · Miami HeatLADDER#265 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 55 — Rotation piece tierINDEXDru Smith · Miami Heat
Scouting report

Dru Smith — the report card

Read his whole game at a glance, then dive into any skill. Grades from the DNA model + real production.

C-
Defensive Guard · Backup · Impact 55
Dru Smith is an undrafted, defensive-minded guard for the Miami Heat from Evansville, Indiana, who played college ball at Evansville and Missouri. Aft
C-
Offense
C-
Defense
C-
Feel / IQ
C-
Playmaking
Below average creator
tap for the data ↓
C-
Scoring
Below average scorer
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F
Rebounding
Below average on the glass
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C-
3PT / spacing
Below average spacing
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B
Perimeter D
Strong on the perimeter
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F
Paint / rim D
Below average at the rim
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C
Clutch
Average late
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C+
Athleticism
Strong tools
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C-
Basketball IQ
Reads the game
tap for the data ↓
A
Durability
Availability
tap for the data ↓
Act II

Where Dru Smith stands

Live ladders from the Balladex models, and what he's chasing. Rankings recompute nightly from real production, accolades, and search demand.

The laddersmodel · recomputes nightly
1
Nikola Jokić Denver Nuggets
44%
2
Giannis Antetokounmpo Miami Heat
23%
3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder
19%
4
Luka Doncic Los Angeles Lakers
6%
5
Kyrie Irving Dallas Mavericks
3%
Balladex Consensus: #259 of 384 — a blend of the Impact index, current production, career résumé and live search demand. Recomputes as the data does.
Futures & chases
MVP odds
55Impact index
134Star score
Career scoring average5.4 ppg
Seasons in the index4
Accolades on file1
1× SEC All-Defensive Team (2021)
Stat explorer

Dru Smith — every number, three levels deep

Headline → metric → the raw history behind it. Real career data; tracking-only metrics labeled.

C-
Scoring
5.6 PPG
drill in ↓
C-
Playmaking
2.6 APG
drill in ↓
F
Rebounding
2.5 RPG
drill in ↓
C-
Shooting
.295 3P%
drill in ↓
The engine

How the model sees Dru Smith

Projection = per-minute rate × projected minutes. Rates are recency- and health-weighted, aged along a per-stat curve, and adjusted for live usage/role. No black box — every number shows its work.

Projected 2026-27  76% confidence
6.1
pts
4.5–7.7
2.6
reb
1.9–3.3
2.9
ast
2.3–3.5
16.7
min
proj
41
gp
health
.429
fg%
~base
.332
3p%
~base
Bands widen as confidence drops. Derived live from the real 4-season history below.
What moves the points line vs last season
Last season 5.6 → projected 6.1 PPG
Minutes / role
+0.1
Development (his trend)
+0.3
Age curve
+0.0
Live context
+0.1
Net vs last season+0.5 PPG
Everything it reads
📊
4 seasons of per-minute rates
every box line, minutes-normalized
real
Recency × games-played weight
recent, healthy seasons anchor the baseline
auto
📈
Weighted least-squares trend
his own trajectory, read season over season
+dev
🕰
Per-stat aging curves
age 29 — applied per stat
curve
🔌
Live role context
usage & role shifts fold in when the feed is present
+ctx
🏥
Durability signal
GP last 3: 9 / 14 / 70 → games & confidence
health
The real history it trains onsource: Basketball-Reference · verified

Dru Smith career stats, season by season

Career stats by season
SeasonGPMINPTSREBASTFG%3P%
2022-23513.42.21.81.0.357.167
2023-24914.64.31.61.6.455.412
2024-251419.16.22.61.6.508.533
2025-267016.35.62.52.6.415.295
Career9816.45.42.42.3
Source: Basketball-Reference. Backtested against completed player-seasons in the index. The same engine powers Tonight's projection, EraLab, and the role simulator — one model, asked different questions. Illustrative.
Act III

The Lab

Every number, live and interactive. Real career data; models labeled.

Gold = MVP / Championship season · hover any bar. Real per-game data; per-36 & totals derived.
EraLab · the stat time machinenovel
Re-express a season in today's pace-and-space.
raw PPG
in 2026 pace
why
Scoring map · clickable zonesShotChart
Team-tinted. Modeled where tracking data is absent.
Role simulatorpowered by GM engine
Change the roster around him — his projection updates live.
Projected line shifts to — usage , assists rise as primary initiator. Title odds . Illustrative.
Context

Are the Miami Heat built to win?

Team projection rolled up from the roster + last-season baselines — and what it means for his role.

48–34proj record
#8conf seed
+2.7net rtg
116.1off rtg
113.3def rtg
85%playoff odds
Roster delta · what changed
Drop coverage — Sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.. Core trending improving. Defensive anchors: Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell.
How his role moves
Projected 48–34, 8th in the East. Real team projection from the roster + last-season baselines. His usage, minutes and creation load move with roster health.
Balladex Impact
55 of 99
Rotation piece tier.
Rarity
◆ Rated
Collectible tier.
Résumé
1 accolades
1× SEC All-Defensive Team (2021)
Act IV

The Ballad of Dru Smith

Birth to now — the making of a legend, narrated and scored.

Dec 30, 1997

The beginning

An undrafted defensive stopper who beat back injuries — perimeter pressure for the Heat.

Miami Heat

Turning pro

Drafted Undrafted, 2021 as a Guard.

true

An undrafted defensive stopper who beat back injuries — perimeter pressure for the Heat.

Chapter

From Evansville, Smith earned First-team All-SEC and SEC All-Defensive honors at Missouri before going undrafted in 2021.

Chapter

A torn ACL (2023) and torn Achilles (2024) limited him to 38 games across three seasons.

Off the court

Measurables ESPN
Active
Height
6' 2"
Weight
200 lbs
College
Missouri
Experience
4th Season
Draft
Undrafted, 2021
Born
Evansville, Indiana
Age
29
Jersey
#12
Beyond the game

Smith's story is one of resilience — an undrafted guard from Evansville who fought through two consecutive season-ending injuries (a torn ACL and a torn Achilles) before finally staying healthy and carving out an NBA role on the strength of his defense. His path through mid-major and SEC basketball built a reputation as a relentless, high-IQ competitor.

His identity is elite point-of-attack defense — a guard who leads the league in deflections and steals per possession, disrupting offenses without needing the ball. A strong college three-point shooter whose NBA jumper has come and gone, he profiles as a defensive specialist and depth guard whose value is tied to perimeter pressure and toughness, exactly the traits Miami's culture rewards.

The person

A resilient, elite perimeter defender — deflections, steals, and high-IQ toughness.

Defensive stopperLed the NBA in deflections per 36 minutes in 2025-26.
ResilientFought back from a torn ACL and a torn Achilles.
High-IQ depthAn undrafted guard who earned his role on defense.
Verified profiles & sources
FAQ

Dru Smith — frequently asked

The questions people ask most about Dru Smith, answered.

What is Dru Smith's biggest strength?
Elite perimeter defense — in 2025-26 he led the NBA in deflections per 36 minutes and ranked first in steals per 75 possessions.
What injuries has Dru Smith overcome?
A torn ACL in 2023 and a torn Achilles in 2024, which limited him to just 38 games across his first three NBA seasons before a healthy 70-game 2025-26.
Was Dru Smith drafted?
No — he went undrafted in 2021 out of Missouri and earned his NBA role on two-way and standard deals with the Heat.
Dru Smith career stats & accolades are real, and team projections and recent-game home/away splits are computed from real production. DNA ratings, grades, tonight's projection, ladders, live win probability and simulator outputs are Balladex model output. Not affiliated with the NBA.
✦ Companion
Ask about Dru Smith

Availability & durability

games played vs season length
Career availability
30%
4 seasons
Last 3 seasons
38%
153 games missed
Games missed
230
career, schedule-adj.
Durability
Injury-prone
improving
Availability by season
5
22-23
9
23-24
14
24-25
70
25-26

Injury-prone. Availability trend is improving38% of games over the last three seasons, low of 6% in 2022-23.

Availability = games played ÷ season length (schedule-adjusted for lockout and COVID seasons). A durability signal from real game data, not a medical assessment.

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