The Index · Live

Davion MitchellMiami Heat · #45

Guard · 6'0", 202 lb · Hinesville, Georgia · Age 28 · 5th season

Davion Mitchell is a defensive-minded point guard for the Miami Heat, nicknamed 'Off-Night' for the misery he causes opposing ball-handlers. The 2021 Naismith Defensive Player of the Year and an NCAA champion at Baylor, he was drafted 9th overall by Sacramento in 2021 and later played for Toronto before joining Miami. He is an elite point-of-attack defender and secondary playmaker.

MVP race · #91Guard rank · #40Balladex Impact · 65
⚖ Quick compare
D
Davion Mitchell
◆ Rated
Miami Heat · #45 · Guard
Davion Mitchell
Season avg9.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 6.5 ast · .490 fg
Career avg7.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 3.8 ast · .450 fg
Live win probabilityHeat 71%
Balladex model · projected 122–118 · 99.7 pace
Tonight's projectionmodel
11.9pts
3.2reb
9.2ast
71%win
Tonight's matchup · who he'll mainly guardhead-to-head
Davion Mitchell
Miami Heat · Guard
C+
vs
72
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Milwaukee Bucks · Solid defender
Category breakout
Head-to-head history
Home/away splits from recent games; live grades from the DNA model.
LADDER#91 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 65 — Solid starter tierINDEXDavion Mitchell · Miami HeatLADDER#91 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 65 — Solid starter tierINDEXDavion Mitchell · Miami Heat
Scouting report

Davion Mitchell — the report card

Read his whole game at a glance, then dive into any skill. Grades from the DNA model + real production.

C
Point-of-Attack Guard · Playmaker · Impact 65
Davion Mitchell is a defensive-minded point guard for the Miami Heat, nicknamed 'Off-Night' for the misery he causes opposing ball-handlers. The 2021
C+
Offense
C-
Defense
C+
Feel / IQ
B-
Playmaking
Strong creator
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C-
Scoring
Average scorer
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F
Rebounding
Below average on the glass
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C+
3PT / spacing
Strong spacing
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B+
Perimeter D
Excellent on the perimeter
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F
Paint / rim D
Below average at the rim
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C
Clutch
Average late
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C+
Athleticism
Strong tools
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C+
Basketball IQ
Reads the game
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A
Durability
Availability
tap for the data ↓
Act II

Where Davion Mitchell stands

Live ladders from the Balladex models, and what he's chasing. Rankings recompute nightly from real production, accolades, and search demand.

The laddersmodel · recomputes nightly
1
Nikola Jokić DEN
29%
2
Luka Doncic LAL
20%
3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA
4%
5
Victor Wembanyama SAS
3%
6
Anthony Edwards MIN
2%
7
Tyrese Maxey PHI
2%
8
Jamal Murray DEN
2%
Balladex Consensus: #108 of 384 — a blend of the Impact index, current production, career résumé and live search demand. Recomputes as the data does.
Futures & chases
<1%MVP odds
65Impact index
207Star score
Career scoring average7.7 ppg
Seasons in the index5
Accolades on file3
1× NCAA Champion (2021) · 1× Naismith DPOY (2021)
Stat explorer

Davion Mitchell — every number, three levels deep

Headline → metric → the raw history behind it. Real career data; tracking-only metrics labeled.

C-
Scoring
9.3 PPG
drill in ↓
B-
Playmaking
6.5 APG
drill in ↓
F
Rebounding
2.7 RPG
drill in ↓
C+
Shooting
.395 3P%
drill in ↓
The engine

How the model sees Davion Mitchell

Projection = per-minute rate × projected minutes. Rates are recency- and health-weighted, aged along a per-stat curve, and adjusted for live usage/role. No black box — every number shows its work.

Projected 2026-27  67% confidence
10.3
pts
8.1–12.5
3.0
reb
2.0–4.0
7.8
ast
6.8–8.8
31.0
min
proj
62
gp
health
.465
fg%
~base
.371
3p%
~base
Bands widen as confidence drops. Derived live from the real 5-season history below.
What moves the points line vs last season
Last season 9.3 → projected 10.3 PPG
Minutes / role
+0.8
Development (his trend)
+0.0
Age curve
+0.0
Live context
+0.2
Net vs last season+1.0 PPG
Everything it reads
📊
5 seasons of per-minute rates
every box line, minutes-normalized
real
Recency × games-played weight
recent, healthy seasons anchor the baseline
auto
📈
Weighted least-squares trend
his own trajectory, read season over season
+dev
🕰
Per-stat aging curves
age 28 — applied per stat
curve
🔌
Live role context
usage & role shifts fold in when the feed is present
+ctx
🏥
Durability signal
GP last 3: 72 / 44 / 70 → games & confidence
health
The real history it trains onsource: Basketball-Reference · verified

Davion Mitchell career stats, season by season

Career stats by season
SeasonGPMINPTSREBASTFG%3P%
2021-227527.711.52.24.2.418.316
2022-238018.15.61.32.3.454.320
2023-247215.35.31.31.9.452.361
2024-254424.56.31.94.6.434.359
2025-267028.69.32.76.5.490.395
Career34122.67.71.93.8
Source: Basketball-Reference. Backtested against completed player-seasons in the index. The same engine powers Tonight's projection, EraLab, and the role simulator — one model, asked different questions. Illustrative.
Act III

The Lab

Every number, live and interactive. Real career data; models labeled.

Gold = MVP / Championship season · hover any bar. Real per-game data; per-36 & totals derived.
EraLab · the stat time machinenovel
Re-express a season in today's pace-and-space.
raw PPG
in 2026 pace
why
Scoring map · clickable zonesShotChart
Team-tinted. Modeled where tracking data is absent.
Role simulatorpowered by GM engine
Change the roster around him — his projection updates live.
Projected line shifts to — usage , assists rise as primary initiator. Title odds . Illustrative.
Context

Are the Miami Heat built to win?

Team projection rolled up from the roster + last-season baselines — and what it means for his role.

48–34proj record
#8conf seed
+2.7net rtg
116.1off rtg
113.3def rtg
85%playoff odds
Roster delta · what changed
Drop coverage — Sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.. Core trending improving. Defensive anchors: Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell.
How his role moves
Projected 48–34, 8th in the East. Real team projection from the roster + last-season baselines. His usage, minutes and creation load move with roster health.
Balladex Impact
65 of 99
Solid starter tier.
Rarity
◆ Rated
Collectible tier.
Résumé
3 accolades
1× NCAA Champion (2021) · 1× Naismith DPOY (2021) · 9th Draft pick (2021)
Act IV

The Ballad of Davion Mitchell

Birth to now — the making of a legend, narrated and scored.

Sep 5, 1998

The beginning

A defensive terror at the point of attack — 'Off-Night,' an NCAA champion, now with the Heat.

Miami Heat

Turning pro

Drafted 9th overall, 2021 as a Guard.

true

A defensive terror nicknamed 'Off-Night' — an NCAA champion, now hounding guards for the Heat.

Chapter

After transferring from Auburn to Baylor, Mitchell anchored the 2021 national champions and won Naismith Defensive Player of the Year.

Chapter

Sacramento drafted him 9th in 2021; he later played for Toronto.

Mitchell's story
The documentary, narrated
Highlights
▶ Highlights landing soon

Off the court

Measurables ESPN
Active
Height
6' 0"
Weight
210 lbs
College
Baylor
Experience
5th Season
Draft
9th overall, 2021
Born
Hinesville, Georgia
Age
28
Jersey
#45
Beyond the game

Mitchell's path was one of persistence — a transfer from Auburn to Baylor who redshirted a year before becoming the heartbeat of a national champion. A Georgia native, he built his identity on relentless, physical on-ball defense, earning a nickname ('Off-Night') that captures exactly what he does to opposing guards.

His on-court identity is point-of-attack defense — a strong, low-to-the-ground guard who pressures ball-handlers full-court and takes on the toughest backcourt assignments, a role that fits Miami's defensive culture perfectly. His developmental question has always been offense: a jumper and scoring consistency that would let him hold a larger role alongside his elite defense.

The person

A relentless point-of-attack defender and playmaker — physical, competitive, and disruptive.

Elite defender2021 Naismith Defensive Player of the Year; smothers ball-handlers.
ChampionAnchored Baylor's 2021 national title team.
Secondary playmakerA capable distributor who runs a second unit.
Verified profiles & sources
FAQ

Davion Mitchell — frequently asked

The questions people ask most about Davion Mitchell, answered.

Why is Davion Mitchell nicknamed 'Off-Night'?
Because of his reputation for smothering opposing ball-handlers so thoroughly that he gives them an 'off night' — a nod to his elite point-of-attack defense.
Did Davion Mitchell win a championship?
Yes — the 2021 NCAA national title at Baylor, where he was also named Naismith Defensive Player of the Year.
What is Davion Mitchell's role with the Heat?
A defensive specialist and secondary playmaker — an elite on-ball defender who takes tough backcourt assignments and runs a second unit.
Davion Mitchell career stats & accolades are real, and team projections and recent-game home/away splits are computed from real production. DNA ratings, grades, tonight's projection, ladders, live win probability and simulator outputs are Balladex model output. Not affiliated with the NBA.
✦ Companion
Ask about Davion Mitchell

Availability & durability

games played vs season length
Career availability
83%
5 seasons
Last 3 seasons
76%
60 games missed
Games missed
69
career, schedule-adj.
Durability
Some risk
steady
Availability by season
75
21-22
80
22-23
72
23-24
44
24-25
70
25-26

Some risk. Availability trend is steady76% of games over the last three seasons, low of 54% in 2024-25.

Availability = games played ÷ season length (schedule-adjusted for lockout and COVID seasons). A durability signal from real game data, not a medical assessment.

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