The Index · Live

Pelle LarssonMiami Heat · #9

Guard · 6'5", 215 lb · Stockholm, Sweden · Age 25 · 2nd season

Pelle Larsson is a Swedish combo guard/wing for the Miami Heat who played college basketball at Utah and Arizona before Miami acquired his draft rights via a 2024 second-round trade. After a modest rookie year, he took a clear step forward in 2025-26, averaging around 11 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists across 70 games. He also starred for Sweden at EuroBasket 2025.

MVP race · #187Guard rank · #96Balladex Impact · 55
⚖ Quick compare
P
Pelle Larsson
◆ Rated
Miami Heat · #9 · Guard
Pelle Larsson
Season avg11.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.4 ast · .496 fg
Career avg8.4 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast · .470 fg
Live win probabilityHeat 71%
Balladex model · projected 122–118 · 99.7 pace
Tonight's projectionmodel
14.4pts
4.2reb
4.3ast
71%win
Tonight's matchup · who he'll mainly guardhead-to-head
Pelle Larsson
Miami Heat · Guard
C
vs
72
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Milwaukee Bucks · Solid defender
Category breakout
Head-to-head history
Home/away splits from recent games; live grades from the DNA model.
LADDER#187 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 55 — Rotation piece tierINDEXPelle Larsson · Miami HeatLADDER#187 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 55 — Rotation piece tierINDEXPelle Larsson · Miami Heat
Scouting report

Pelle Larsson — the report card

Read his whole game at a glance, then dive into any skill. Grades from the DNA model + real production.

C-
Connective Wing · Slasher · Impact 55
Pelle Larsson is a Swedish combo guard/wing for the Miami Heat who played college basketball at Utah and Arizona before Miami acquired his draft right
C
Offense
D
Defense
C
Feel / IQ
C
Playmaking
Average creator
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C
Scoring
Average scorer
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D
Rebounding
Below average on the glass
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C-
3PT / spacing
Average spacing
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C
Perimeter D
Average on the perimeter
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F
Paint / rim D
Below average at the rim
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C
Clutch
Average late
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C+
Athleticism
Strong tools
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C
Basketball IQ
Reads the game
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A
Durability
Availability
tap for the data ↓
Act II

Where Pelle Larsson stands

Live ladders from the Balladex models, and what he's chasing. Rankings recompute nightly from real production, accolades, and search demand.

The laddersmodel · recomputes nightly
1
Nikola Jokić DEN
29%
2
Luka Doncic LAL
20%
3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4
Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA
4%
5
Victor Wembanyama SAS
3%
6
Anthony Edwards MIN
2%
7
Tyrese Maxey PHI
2%
8
Jamal Murray DEN
2%
Balladex Consensus: #238 of 384 — a blend of the Impact index, current production, career résumé and live search demand. Recomputes as the data does.
Futures & chases
<1%MVP odds
55Impact index
112Star score
Career scoring average8.4 ppg
Seasons in the index2
Accolades on file2
1× Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year (2022) · 44th Draft pick (2024)
Stat explorer

Pelle Larsson — every number, three levels deep

Headline → metric → the raw history behind it. Real career data; tracking-only metrics labeled.

C
Scoring
11.4 PPG
drill in ↓
C
Playmaking
3.4 APG
drill in ↓
D
Rebounding
3.5 RPG
drill in ↓
C-
Shooting
.323 3P%
drill in ↓
The engine

How the model sees Pelle Larsson

Projection = per-minute rate × projected minutes. Rates are recency- and health-weighted, aged along a per-stat curve, and adjusted for live usage/role. No black box — every number shows its work.

Projected 2026-27  54% confidence
14.0
pts
10.9–17.1
4.0
reb
2.6–5.4
4.2
ast
3.0–5.4
29.0
min
proj
65
gp
health
.479
fg%
~base
.327
3p%
~base
Bands widen as confidence drops. Derived live from the real 2-season history below.
What moves the points line vs last season
Last season 11.4 → projected 14.0 PPG
Minutes / role
+1.1
Development (his trend)
+1.1
Age curve
+0.1
Live context
+0.3
Net vs last season+2.6 PPG
Everything it reads
📊
2 seasons of per-minute rates
every box line, minutes-normalized
real
Recency × games-played weight
recent, healthy seasons anchor the baseline
auto
📈
Weighted least-squares trend
his own trajectory, read season over season
+dev
🕰
Per-stat aging curves
age 25 — applied per stat
curve
🔌
Live role context
usage & role shifts fold in when the feed is present
+ctx
🏥
Durability signal
GP last 3: 55 / 70 → games & confidence
health
The real history it trains onsource: Basketball-Reference · verified

Pelle Larsson career stats, season by season

Career stats by season
SeasonGPMINPTSREBASTFG%3P%
2024-255514.24.61.71.2.438.337
2025-267026.411.43.53.4.496.323
Career12521.08.42.72.4
Source: Basketball-Reference. Backtested against completed player-seasons in the index. The same engine powers Tonight's projection, EraLab, and the role simulator — one model, asked different questions. Illustrative.
Act III

The Lab

Every number, live and interactive. Real career data; models labeled.

Gold = MVP / Championship season · hover any bar. Real per-game data; per-36 & totals derived.
EraLab · the stat time machinenovel
Re-express a season in today's pace-and-space.
raw PPG
in 2026 pace
why
Scoring map · clickable zonesShotChart
Team-tinted. Modeled where tracking data is absent.
Role simulatorpowered by GM engine
Change the roster around him — his projection updates live.
Projected line shifts to — usage , assists rise as primary initiator. Title odds . Illustrative.
Context

Are the Miami Heat built to win?

Team projection rolled up from the roster + last-season baselines — and what it means for his role.

48–34proj record
#8conf seed
+2.7net rtg
116.1off rtg
113.3def rtg
85%playoff odds
Roster delta · what changed
Drop coverage — Sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.. Core trending improving. Defensive anchors: Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell.
How his role moves
Projected 48–34, 8th in the East. Real team projection from the roster + last-season baselines. His usage, minutes and creation load move with roster health.
Balladex Impact
55 of 99
Rotation piece tier.
Rarity
◆ Rated
Collectible tier.
Résumé
2 accolades
1× Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year (2022) · 44th Draft pick (2024)
Act IV

The Ballad of Pelle Larsson

Birth to now — the making of a legend, narrated and scored.

Feb 23, 2001

The beginning

A Swedish combo guard on the rise — a year-two leap and international scoring for the Heat.

Miami Heat

Turning pro

Drafted 44th overall, 2024 as a Guard.

true

A Swedish combo guard on the rise — a year-two leap and international scoring for the Heat.

Chapter

From Stockholm, Larsson played at Utah and Arizona — Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year — before Miami acquired him 44th in 2024.

Chapter

After a modest rookie year, he leapt in 2025-26 to around 11 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists.

Larsson's story
The documentary, narrated

Off the court

Measurables ESPN
Active
Height
6' 5"
Weight
215 lbs
College
Arizona
Experience
2nd Season
Draft
44th overall, 2024
Born
Stockholm, Sweden
Age
25
Jersey
#9
Beyond the game

Larsson is part of Sweden's growing basketball footprint — the son of Christian Larsson, a former Swedish national-team player — and was a Second-team Academic All-American in college, marking him as a cerebral, well-rounded player. He shared an apartment at Utah with fellow European pro Mikael Jantunen before transferring to Arizona.

His on-court identity is versatile combo play — a 6-foot-5 wing who can handle both guard spots and small forward, with a jump in his playmaking (3.4 assists) in 2025-26 pointing to expanding on-ball responsibility. His EuroBasket scoring for Sweden shows a higher offensive gear; developing into a steady two-way rotation piece is the trajectory.

The person

A versatile, cerebral combo guard/wing — scoring, playmaking, and positional flexibility.

VersatilePlays both guard spots and small forward at 6-foot-5.
RisingA clear year-two statistical leap for Miami.
International scorerAveraged 18.8 points for Sweden at EuroBasket 2025.
Verified profiles & sources
FAQ

Pelle Larsson — frequently asked

The questions people ask most about Pelle Larsson, answered.

Where is Pelle Larsson from?
Stockholm, Sweden — the son of former Swedish national-team player Christian Larsson.
How did Pelle Larsson join the Heat?
Houston drafted him 44th overall in 2024 and traded his draft rights to Miami.
How was Pelle Larsson's 2025-26 season?
A clear breakout — around 11 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists across 70 games, establishing him as an ascending rotation piece.
Pelle Larsson career stats & accolades are real, and team projections and recent-game home/away splits are computed from real production. DNA ratings, grades, tonight's projection, ladders, live win probability and simulator outputs are Balladex model output. Not affiliated with the NBA.
✦ Companion
Ask about Pelle Larsson

Availability & durability

games played vs season length
Career availability
76%
2 seasons
Last 3 seasons
76%
39 games missed
Games missed
39
career, schedule-adj.
Durability
Some risk
steady
Availability by season
55
24-25
70
25-26

Some risk. Availability trend is steady76% of games over the last three seasons, low of 67% in 2024-25.

Availability = games played ÷ season length (schedule-adjusted for lockout and COVID seasons). A durability signal from real game data, not a medical assessment.

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