The Index · Live

Marvin Bagley III Denver Nuggets · #3

Forward · 6'10", 235 lb · Phoenix, AZ · Age 27 · 11th season

Marvin Bagley III is a forward for the Denver Nuggets who has played 349 games over 8 seasons, averaging 10.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 2025-26.

Denver Nuggets roster More Forwards

MVP race · #562Forward rank · #108Balladex Impact · 59

⚖ Quick compare

Analysis by Beau Thoutt · Balladex

◆ Rated

Denver Nuggets · #3 · Forward

Marvin Bagley III

Season avg11.0 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.3 ast · .606 fg

Career avg11.8 pts · 6.5 reb · 1.0 ast · .538 fg

Live win probabilitySeason

No scheduled game — showing season pace. Illustrative.

Tonight's projectionmodel

11.0pts

6.8reb

1.3ast

LADDER#562 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 59 — Solid starter tierINDEXMarvin Bagley III · Denver NuggetsLADDER#562 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 59 — Solid starter tierINDEXMarvin Bagley III · Denver Nuggets

Scouting report

Marvin Bagley III — the report card

Read his whole game at a glance, then dive into any skill. Grades from the DNA model + real production.

Forward · Solid starter · Impact 59

Marvin Bagley III is a forward for the Denver Nuggets who has played 349 games over 8 seasons, averaging 10.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists in

C-

Offense

C-

Defense

C-

Feel / IQ

C-

Playmaking

Below average creator

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C-

Scoring

Below average scorer

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C-

Rebounding

Below average on the glass

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C-

3PT / spacing

Below average spacing

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C-

Perimeter D

Below average on the perimeter

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C-

Paint / rim D

Below average at the rim

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C-

Clutch

Below average late

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C-

Athleticism

Below average tools

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C-

Basketball IQ

Reads the game

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Durability

Availability

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Act II

Where Marvin Bagley III stands

Live ladders from the Balladex models, and what he's chasing. Rankings recompute nightly from real production, accolades, and search demand.

The laddersmodel · recomputes nightly

Nikola Jokić Denver Nuggets▬

43%

Giannis Antetokounmpo Miami Heat▬

23%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder▬

19%

Luka Doncic Los Angeles Lakers▬

Joel Embiid Philadelphia 76ers▬

✦ Balladex Consensus: #304 of 627 — a blend of the Impact index, current production, career résumé and live search demand. Recomputes as the data does.

Futures & chases

—MVP odds

59Impact index

32Star score

Career scoring average11.8 ppg

Seasons in the index11

Accolades on file0

Stat explorer

Marvin Bagley III — every number, three levels deep

Headline → metric → the raw history behind it. Real career data; tracking-only metrics labeled.

C-

Scoring

11.0 PPG

drill in ↓

C-

Playmaking

1.3 APG

drill in ↓

C-

Rebounding

6.8 RPG

drill in ↓

C-

Shooting

.485 3P%

drill in ↓

The engine

How the model sees Marvin Bagley III

Projection = per-minute rate × projected minutes. Rates are recency- and health-weighted, aged along a per-stat curve, and adjusted for live usage/role. No black box — every number shows its work.

Projected 2026-27 69% confidence

10.6

pts

8.5–12.7

6.2

reb

5.1–7.3

1.6

ast

0.9–2.3

20.0

min

proj

health

.585

fg%

~base

.347

3p%

~base

Bands widen as confidence drops. Derived live from the real 8-season history below.

What moves the points line vs last season

Last season 10.4 → projected 10.6 PPG

Minutes / role

+0.0

Development (his trend)

-0.1

Age curve

+0.0

Live context

+0.2

Net vs last season+0.1 PPG

Everything it reads

📊

11 seasons of per-minute rates

every box line, minutes-normalized

real

⚖

Recency × games-played weight

recent, healthy seasons anchor the baseline

auto

📈

Weighted least-squares trend

his own trajectory, read season over season

+dev

🕰

Per-stat aging curves

age 27 — applied per stat

curve

🔌

Live role context

usage & role shifts fold in when the feed is present

+ctx

🏥

Durability signal

GP last 3: 31 / 38 / 22 → games & confidence

health

The real history it trains onsource: Basketball-Reference · verified

Marvin Bagley III career stats, season by season

Career stats by season
Season	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%
2018-19	62	25.3	14.9	7.6	1.0	.504	.313
2019-20	13	25.7	14.2	7.5	0.8	.467	.182
2020-21	43	25.9	14.1	7.4	1.0	.504	.343
2021-22 (Sacramento)	30	21.9	9.3	7.2	0.6	.463	.242
2021-22 (Detroit)	18	27.3	14.6	6.8	1.1	.555	.229
2022-23	42	23.6	12.0	6.4	0.9	.529	.288
2023-24 (Detroit)	26	18.3	10.2	4.5	1.0	.591	.167
2023-24 (Washington)	24	24.0	13.3	8.1	1.2	.581	.471
2024-25	31	8.5	4.4	2.7	0.4	.519	.158
2025-26 (Washington)	38	19.3	10.1	5.7	1.5	.626	.421
2025-26 (Dallas)	22	21.4	11.0	6.8	1.3	.606	.485
Career	349	22.0	11.8	6.5	1.0

Source: Basketball-Reference. Backtested against completed player-seasons in the index. The same engine powers Tonight's projection, EraLab, and the role simulator — one model, asked different questions. Illustrative.

Act III

The Lab

Every number, live and interactive. Real career data; models labeled.

Gold = MVP / Championship season · hover any bar. Real per-game data; per-36 & totals derived.

EraLab · the stat time machinenovel

Re-express a season in today's pace-and-space.

—raw PPG

→

—in 2026 pace

why

Player DNA + compssimilarity model

Closest comps

⚖ Overlay a rival →

Scoring map · clickable zonesShotChart

Team-tinted. Modeled where tracking data is absent.

Role simulatorpowered by GM engine

Change the roster around him — his projection updates live.

If a key teammate misses 20 games →

Projected line shifts to — usage , assists rise as primary initiator. Title odds . Illustrative.

Context

Are the Denver Nuggets built to win?

Team projection rolled up from the roster + last-season baselines — and what it means for his role.

55–27proj record

#4conf seed

+5.2net rtg

121.2off rtg

116def rtg

98%playoff odds

Roster delta · what changed

Aggressive hedge & help — Hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side. Core trending steady. Defensive anchors: Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun.

How his role moves

Projected 55–27, 4th in the West. Real team projection from the roster + last-season baselines. His usage, minutes and creation load move with roster health.

Balladex Impact

59 of 99

Solid starter tier.

Rarity

◆ Rated

Collectible tier.

Résumé

0 accolades

Career honors on file.

Act IV

The Ballad of Marvin Bagley III

Birth to now — the making of a legend, narrated and scored.

1999-03-14

The beginning

Marvin Bagley III is a forward for the Denver Nuggets.

Denver Nuggets

Turning pro

Drafted 2nd overall, 2018 as a Forward.

true

Marvin Bagley III is a forward for the Denver Nuggets.

Chapter

He has played 349 games over 8 seasons (2018-26), averaging 22.0 minutes a night. The season-by-season table below carries every per-game figure, each one reconciled against ESPN.

Chapter

In 2025-26 he played 60 games across 2 teams, averaging 10.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 20.1 minutes.

▶

III's story

The documentary, narrated

Highlights

▶ Highlights landing soon

Off the court

Measurables ESPN

Active

Height: 6' 10"
Weight: 235 lbs
College: Duke
Experience: 9th Season
NBA debut: 2018
Draft: 2nd overall, 2018
Born: Phoenix, AZ
Age: 27
Jersey: #3

Beyond the game

Marvin Bagley III is from Phoenix, AZ, born 1999-03-14, listed at 6'10" and 235 lb. He has 9 seasons of NBA service. This background is assembled from league records; the colour that fills a page like this comes later, from a human.

The person

A forward on 22.0 career minutes a night, read from the box score rather than the eye test.

Rotation regular20.1 minutes a night in the rotation.

Active on the glass6.1 rebounds per game.

Floor spacerShooting 48.5% from three.

Verified profiles & sources

ESPN

FAQ

Marvin Bagley III — frequently asked

The questions people ask most about Marvin Bagley III, answered.

What position does Marvin Bagley III play?

Marvin Bagley III is a forward for the Denver Nuggets.

How many NBA games has Marvin Bagley III played?

349 regular-season games over 8 seasons, averaging 22.0 minutes.

How many NBA seasons has Marvin Bagley III played?

8 seasons (2018-26).

How tall is Marvin Bagley III?

6'10", 235 lb

Marvin Bagley III career stats & accolades are real, and team projections and recent-game home/away splits are computed from real production. DNA ratings, grades, tonight's projection, ladders, live win probability and simulator outputs are Balladex model output. Not affiliated with the NBA.