The Index · Live

DaRon Holmes IIDenver Nuggets · #14

Forward · 6'9", 225 lb · Overland Park, Kansas · Age 24 · 1st season

DaRon Holmes II is a young two-way big for the Denver Nuggets with stretch-five upside. A three-year star at Dayton, he was drafted 22nd overall in 2024 by Phoenix and immediately traded to Denver — then tore his Achilles in Summer League days later, costing him his entire rookie season. He returned in 2025-26 to begin his career, flashing shooting and rim protection.

Denver Nuggets roster More Forwards

MVP race · #268Forward rank · #93Balladex Impact · 58

⚖ Quick compare

Analysis by Beau Thoutt · Balladex · Updated Jul 12, 2026

◆ Rated

Denver Nuggets · #14 · Forward

DaRon Holmes II

Season avg3.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.6 ast · .508 fg

Career avg3.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.6 ast · .508 fg

Live win probabilityNuggets 52%

Balladex model · projected 118–118 · 99.5 pace

Tonight's projectionmodel

3.8pts

1.4reb

0.6ast

52%win

Tonight's matchup · who he'll mainly guardhead-to-head

DaRon Holmes II

Denver Nuggets · Forward

C-

Isaiah Hartenstein

Oklahoma City Thunder · Strong defender

Category breakout

Head-to-head history

Home/away splits from recent games; live grades from the DNA model.

LADDER#268 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 58 — Solid starter tierINDEXDaRon Holmes II · Denver NuggetsLADDER#268 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 58 — Solid starter tierINDEXDaRon Holmes II · Denver Nuggets

Scouting report

DaRon Holmes II — the report card

Read his whole game at a glance, then dive into any skill. Grades from the DNA model + real production.

Young Two-Way Big · Impact 58

DaRon Holmes II is a young two-way big for the Denver Nuggets with stretch-five upside. A three-year star at Dayton, he was drafted 22nd overall in 20

C-

Offense

Defense

Feel / IQ

Playmaking

Below average creator

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C-

Scoring

Average scorer

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C-

Rebounding

Average on the glass

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C+

3PT / spacing

Strong spacing

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Perimeter D

Average on the perimeter

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C+

Paint / rim D

Average at the rim

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Clutch

Below average late

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B+

Athleticism

Excellent tools

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Basketball IQ

Reads the game

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Durability

Availability

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Act II

Where DaRon Holmes II stands

Live ladders from the Balladex models, and what he's chasing. Rankings recompute nightly from real production, accolades, and search demand.

The laddersmodel · recomputes nightly

Nikola Jokić Denver Nuggets▬

44%

Giannis Antetokounmpo Miami Heat▬

23%

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder▬

19%

Luka Doncic Los Angeles Lakers▬

Kyrie Irving Dallas Mavericks▬

✦ Balladex Consensus: #260 of 384 — a blend of the Impact index, current production, career résumé and live search demand. Recomputes as the data does.

Futures & chases

—MVP odds

58Impact index

93Star score

Career scoring average3.7 ppg

Seasons in the index1

Accolades on file0

Stat explorer

DaRon Holmes II — every number, three levels deep

Headline → metric → the raw history behind it. Real career data; tracking-only metrics labeled.

C-

Scoring

3.7 PPG

drill in ↓

Playmaking

0.6 APG

drill in ↓

C-

Rebounding

1.4 RPG

drill in ↓

C+

Shooting

.444 3P%

drill in ↓

The engine

How the model sees DaRon Holmes II

Projection = per-minute rate × projected minutes. Rates are recency- and health-weighted, aged along a per-stat curve, and adjusted for live usage/role. No black box — every number shows its work.

Projected 2026-27 confidence

Bands widen as confidence drops. Derived live from the real 1-season history below.

What moves the points line vs last season

Everything it reads

📊

1 seasons of per-minute rates

every box line, minutes-normalized

real

⚖

Recency × games-played weight

recent, healthy seasons anchor the baseline

auto

📈

Weighted least-squares trend

his own trajectory, read season over season

+dev

🕰

Per-stat aging curves

age 24 — applied per stat

curve

🔌

Live role context

usage & role shifts fold in when the feed is present

+ctx

🏥

Durability signal

GP last 3: 25 → games & confidence

health

The real history it trains onsource: Basketball-Reference · verified

DaRon Holmes II career stats, season by season

Career stats by season
Season	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%
2025-26	25	8.4	3.7	1.4	0.6	.508	.444
Career	25	8.4	3.7	1.4	0.6

Source: Basketball-Reference. Backtested against completed player-seasons in the index. The same engine powers Tonight's projection, EraLab, and the role simulator — one model, asked different questions. Illustrative.

Act III

The Lab

Every number, live and interactive. Real career data; models labeled.

Gold = MVP / Championship season · hover any bar. Real per-game data; per-36 & totals derived.

EraLab · the stat time machinenovel

Re-express a season in today's pace-and-space.

—raw PPG

→

—in 2026 pace

why

Player DNA + compssimilarity model

Closest comps

Peyton Watson 95%Zeke Nnaji 95%Al Horford 94%Brook Lopez 94%Gui Santos 94%

⚖ Overlay a rival →

Scoring map · clickable zonesShotChart

Team-tinted. Modeled where tracking data is absent.

Role simulatorpowered by GM engine

Change the roster around him — his projection updates live.

If a key teammate misses 20 games →

Projected line shifts to — usage , assists rise as primary initiator. Title odds . Illustrative.

Context

Are the Denver Nuggets built to win?

Team projection rolled up from the roster + last-season baselines — and what it means for his role.

55–27proj record

#4conf seed

+5.4net rtg

121.3off rtg

115.9def rtg

98%playoff odds

Roster delta · what changed

Switch-heavy — Switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front. Core trending improving. Defensive anchors: Peyton Watson, Aaron Gordon.

How his role moves

Projected 55–27, 4th in the West. Real team projection from the roster + last-season baselines. His usage, minutes and creation load move with roster health.

Balladex Impact

58 of 99

Solid starter tier.

Rarity

◆ Rated

Collectible tier.

Résumé

0 accolades

Career honors on file.

Act IV

The Ballad of DaRon Holmes II

Birth to now — the making of a legend, narrated and scored.

Aug 15, 2002

The beginning

A promising two-way big whose career began with a cruel twist — and a comeback.

Denver Nuggets

Turning pro

Drafted 22nd overall, 2024 as a Forward.

true

A first-round big whose NBA debut was stolen by an Achilles tear — and who fought all the way back.

Chapter

A three-year standout at Dayton, Holmes was drafted 22nd in 2024 by Phoenix and traded to Denver on draft night — a versatile, shot-blocking big with shooting range.

Chapter

Days after signing, he tore his Achilles in his Summer League debut, losing his entire rookie season — then returned in 2025-26 to finally start his career.

▶

II's story

The documentary, narrated

Highlights

▶ DaRon Holmes II Career High 11 Points Full Game Highlights 12/31/25 ▶ DaRon Holmes II Dropped CAREER-HIGH 36 PTS Versus The Celtics

Off the court

Measurables ESPN

Active

Height: 6' 9"
Weight: 225 lbs
College: Dayton
Experience: 1st Season
Draft: 22nd overall, 2024
Born: Overland Park, Kansas
Age: 24
Jersey: #14

Beyond the game

Holmes's early NBA story is defined by resilience: a first-round talent whose professional debut was delayed a full year by a devastating Achilles tear suffered in his very first Summer League game. The long, patient rehab — and his return to the floor in 2025-26 — is the throughline of a career still waiting to properly begin.

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The person

A resilient, two-way young big with stretch-five tools — a career on the launchpad after a hard first chapter.

Stretch-five upsideShot 44% from three in limited 2025-26 minutes.

Rim protectionAveraged over two blocks a game at Dayton.

ResilientReturned from a torn Achilles that cost his rookie year.

Verified profiles & sources

Wikipedia

FAQ

DaRon Holmes II — frequently asked

The questions people ask most about DaRon Holmes II, answered.

What happened to DaRon Holmes II's rookie season?

He tore his right Achilles tendon in his Summer League debut in July 2024, costing him his entire rookie year.

How was DaRon Holmes II drafted?

22nd overall in 2024 by Phoenix, who traded him to Denver on draft night.

DaRon Holmes II career stats & accolades are real, and team projections and recent-game home/away splits are computed from real production. DNA ratings, grades, tonight's projection, ladders, live win probability and simulator outputs are Balladex model output. Not affiliated with the NBA.

DaRon Holmes IIDenver Nuggets · #14

DaRon Holmes II — the report card

Where DaRon Holmes II stands

DaRon Holmes II — every number, three levels deep

How the model sees DaRon Holmes II

DaRon Holmes II career stats, season by season

The Lab

Are the Denver Nuggets built to win?

The Ballad of DaRon Holmes II

The beginning

Turning pro

true

Chapter

Chapter

Off the court

DaRon Holmes II — frequently asked

Availability & durability

More Denver Nuggets players

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